Norbert may become a hurricane as later track uncertainty increases

Observed position and intensity

At 0300 UTC on September 12, 2026, the center of Tropical Storm Norbert was near 17.2N 126.6W in the eastern Pacific. That placed it about 1150 mi WSW of the southern tip of Baja California and about 1870 mi E of Hilo, Hawaii. Maximum sustained winds were 55 kt, gusts reached 65 kt, and the estimated minimum central pressure was 996 mb. [s2] [s3]

At the same observation time, Norbert was moving west-northwest, or 285 degrees, at 10 kt. Satellite imagery indicated little change in convective organization during the preceding several hours. A curved band of deep convection still wrapped around the western semicircle from the north, although cloud-top temperatures inside that band had risen slightly. [s3] [s1]

Forecast through the weekend

The National Hurricane Center forecasts a generally westward to west-northwestward motion through the weekend. This part of the projected track is associated with a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge remaining north of the cyclone. Environmental conditions appeared favorable for some strengthening, and the official forecast says Norbert may become a hurricane within the next 24 h. [s1]

Confidence in the track then decreases because the model solutions separate significantly. The GFS depicts a generally westward course along the northern side of the guidance envelope, whereas the ECMWF depicts a more southwestward route. Consensus guidance falls between those outcomes. The divergence is tied to differing projections for the evolution of the mid-level ridge. [s1]

Intensity depends on the track

The eventual route would also affect Norbert’s intensity. A more northward track resembling the GFS scenario would encounter increasing vertical shear and produce considerable weakening. A more southern route similar to the ECMWF scenario would encounter less vertical shear and could allow the storm to strengthen. That southern-track outcome remains a possibility rather than a certainty. [s1]

At the forecast points listed by the NHC, intensity reaches 60 kt at 12/1200Z and 65 kt at 13/0000Z, 13/1200Z and 14/0000Z. The listed values fall to 55 kt at 14/1200Z, 15/0000Z, 16/0000Z and 17/0000Z. The table therefore gives values for specific forecast times, while the discussion emphasizes their dependence on the track scenario. [s1]

No coastal alerts in effect

Advisory Number 10 reported no coastal meteorological watches or warnings in effect. In the same bulletin, the National Hurricane Center listed no hazards affecting land. That official status is separate from the intensification forecast: Norbert may attain hurricane strength, but the reviewed advisory did not associate the system with any active coastal alert. [s1] [s2]

Sources consulted

1. Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Discussion Number 10 — Source: NOAA / National Hurricane Center
2. Summary for Tropical Storm Norbert (EP4/EP142026) — Source: NOAA / National Hurricane Center
3. Tropical Storm Norbert Forecast Advisory Number 10 — Source: NOAA / National Hurricane Center